Research proposal abstract

The world has experienced a dramatic increase in the number of disasters over the past two decades. For instance, during the period 1991-2010 a total of 1,600 disasters were recorded, representing a 30% increase relative to the previous decade [1]. Also, in the period 2001-2010, economic losses exceeded US$600 billion, which doubles the number in the previous decade. The amount of people affected by disasters in the past decade was about 120 million, which essentially doubles the people affected in the previous decade. This increase in number of disasters, economic losses and people affected is attributed to the cluster effect of large earthquakes [2], to the anthropogenic causes of natural disasters relative to climate change, and to the important strength of the events, such as the earthquakes of 2010 in Haiti and Chile.

Motivated by a very critical issue in disasters, which is the response of people, this research proposal studies the challenging problem of the integrated response of human agents inhabiting structures, networks, and even the environment as they are subjected to the direct and consequential effects of extreme loading conditions caused by earthquakes. These extreme events cause physical changes on these physical systems (e.g., damage, collapse, inundation, fire) that may induce cognitive, perceptual, physiological, and physical effects on people interacting with them during and after the event. Therefore, a main challenge is to develop a consistent conceptual framework and a mathematical model that integrates the stochastic description and generation of these critical events, the complex structural and nonstructural dynamic response of physical systems, and the intrinsically complex response of human agents as they interact with these systems.

To tackle such a complex problem, the project starts studying rather simple applications and more conceptual aspects, and then moves into systems with larger conceptual and implementation complexities. Consequently, the project considers in year one as a study target, a rather simple Control-structure, which serves the purpose of a proof-of-concept of the model. Then, the research opens in year two into the detailed study of two very distinct facilities from their physical as well as operational point of view, an elementary school and a hospital. And in year three, expands this to study the performance of an elementary school and healthcare local network. The geographical target of this work is a city located in northern Chile, most likely Iquique, which might be seriously affected by the large earthquake expected in this region.

More specifically, the outcome of this research will be an integrated stochastic and agent-based model capable of representing the interaction between people and the surrounding physical setting. The model will work in this project at two different scales, single buildings and a network of schools and healthcare facilities. The work is tackled in four concurrent lines of research, which will involve state of the art modeling, analysis, and simulation of different but related disciplines. These are: (i) Seismic scenario generation (L1); (ii) Human-structure interaction and model integration (L2); (iii) Human-to-human interaction and agent characterization (L3); and (iv) Geographical information analysis, community engagement, and outreach (L4).

In years to come, this model will integrate important aspects of the response of structures and people and will facilitate decision making processes by answering relevant questions involving coupled variables such as downtime of school and healthcare structures and networks, evacuation time, number of displaced occupants, number of injuries or casualties, and shelter needs. This is a rather novel problem in the realm of seismic and structural engineering with strong implications in future disaster response. Moreover, the existence and extension of the model may help in the study of many other relevant applications such as the impact of tsunamis on communities, the operation of different lifelines, traffic networks in critical events, inundations caused by extreme climate events, city evacuations due to other natural and anthropogenic hazards, disease control, public health issues, emergency management, and social unrest.

[1] EM-DAT, “The international disaster database,” 2013. [Online]. Available at www.emdat.be/naturaldisasters-trends. [Accessed 28 June 2013].

[2] H. Kanamori, “Great earthquakes at island arcs and the lithosphere,” Tectonophysics, no. 12, pp.187-198.

Research Team

• Juan Carlos de la Llera, School of Engineering at PUC (Responsible investigator)
• Edmundo Kronmüller, School of Psychology at PUC (Co-Investigator)
• Vladimir López, School of Psychology at PUC (Co-Investigator)
• Andrea Vásquez, CIGIDEN at PUC (Co-Investigator)
• Judith Mitrani-Reiser, Department of Civil Engineering at Johns Hopkins University, USA (International collaborator)